With less than 150 views I've had over 30 replies to my last post. Many of them explaining how I'm wrong, that 20 million deer hunters will be effective. One anonymous coward called me a "staff college man, just like the ones who lost Vietnam!" Obviously with a comment like that I'm in the presence of a military genius to rival Napoleon, or at least a little man with a Napoleon Complex.
So lets go back and review some of the history of successful insurgencies. This is a subject I have written on before. The most successful insurgency/revolutionary model in the modern era of warfare is Mao's three stage model, which Aesop brought up in comments. I've even written that I believe that America is currently in the birthing stages of an insurgency.
Mao Tse Tung’s
Three Phase Theory of
1. Organization, consolidation and preservation of base areas,
usually in difficult and isolated terrain.
2. Progressive expansion by terror and attacks on isolated enemy units
to obtain arms, supplies and political support.
3. Decision, or destruction of the enemy in battle.
Notice that the first part of the equation is organization. Step one is
ORGANIZATION. Step two is EXPAND OPERATIONS. Step three is WIN IN A
CONVENTIONAL FIGHT DECISIVELY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR IDEOLOGICAL GOVERNMENT. Hint, if you DON'T implement a government, then you will likely fall into a succession of "purges" as the more violent insurgents/revolutionaries grapple for power or hold a "reign of terror."
This is the same model that our Founding Fathers used. Create a cadre of patriots, build popular support, throw some tea into the water, declare independence, fight a war to secure it.
Since there is NO ORGANIZATION there WILL BE NO REVOLUTION/INSURGENCY from the 20 Million Deer Hunters. 20 Million people, each with their own life, own priorities, and own problems, will not all decide to become sniper teams to take on the government. Statistically it can't happen. You know why? Because 20 Million Drivers would create a huge traffic jam. People very seldom self organize across large tracts of geography, socioeconomic groups, or family lines. It just doesn't happen.
There are a lot of reasons that the 20 Million Deer Hunters aren't organized, some just don't care, some don't have the time, and some don't see the point of aligning themselves with the "militia extremists" they think are nutjobs. Statistically about half of those 20 Million Deer Hunters already work for the government at the Fed/State/Local level, and it is not in their best interest to be part of an anti-government organization of any stripe.
If I wanted to control my neighborhood, how many bodies would I need to bock off the three main roads that run through it? How would I need to arm them to resist? How would I reinforce their positions? I could do it with 6 men and some heavy weapons. I don't have 6 men, and I don't have heavy weapons. How could I do it with strangers with deer rifles even if they did show up and volunteer? Who would I talk to about tactical control of the entire town? Would he or she have a grasp of tactics or just a thug with an agenda?
Right now there are men actively training other men in the skills necessary to work as part of a fire team. This is good. Right now there are men trying to connect Patriots across the nation, there was even CPX Foxtrot (relatively recently). This is all great. But it is not enough to win. If the balloon went up today, right now, the odds clearly show 20 Million Deer Hunters not being effective at retaining freedom.
Now recently AP posted "the odds don't matter anymore." He is talking about not being discouraged by the current odds, not being stupid and believing in the fairy tales about "20 Million Deer Hunters" or "100 Million Gun Owners." I've quite a lot of respect for history, and while I truly hope this nation avoids the mistakes of the Germans, Russians, and Chinese in using the military as a domestic pacification force I don't think that we as Americans are fundamentally different from the Germans, Russians, or Chinese. There exists currently in our 50% working population (employed by the .gov) enough sociopaths to do horrible damage to our nation.
Don't get me wrong, the 20 Million Deer Hunters and 100 Million Gun Owners represent a huge potential. But potential is easily wasted if not disciplined into reality. But the first step is getting organized. Mao did it, the Founding Fathers did it, and if you think that the current generation doesn't need to do it, drive on with your bad self.