Iran

The main stream media has been trumpeting Obama's policy towards Iran as "good" because Iran is doing the "crawdad" with nuclear talks and military adventurism.

In a perfect world that would be the end of the story, that sanctions are working and Iran is deciding that peace is worth it.  Unfortunately that is never the end of the story.

The other side of the story starts in Europe.  http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120126-713966.html as I see it right now the Eurozone has to pull together or fall apart.  Either option is a valid outcome to the current economic troubles.  If Europe pulls together we see the finalization of a pan-European political state that has been in an embryonic state ever since the "league of nations" first came around.  If Europe falls apart, well then the Euro won't be competing with the Dollar as it will by necessity become a dead currency, the same as old Mexican Pesos or East German Marks.

Now that Europe as done its best to placate America by saying "No Euros for Iranian Oil" we see a devaluation of Iranian currency.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/26/us-iran-econcomy-rial-idUSTRE80P1J020120126 This devaluation is once again proof that economic warfare works.  However it only works against fiat currency (the only way to devalue a commodity currency is to flood the market or somehow make it not a commodity that people desire or need).  However since China is producing more and more of Iran's imports the sanctions by the rest of the world will matter less and less in the long run.  Like the underdog in a boxing match right now Iran is simply riding the ropes and waiting for the bell to ring.  Iran doesn't have to deliver a knockdown punch, just stay in the ring until the big man gets tired.

As a side note the Saudis are sitting pretty to make a profit no matter which way this goes. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_reckoning/2012/01/26/iran_s_crisis_the_saudis_in_the_catbird_seat.html

And while the mainstream media trumpets Obama's triumphant international realpolitik I can't help but wonder if Iran might become "Libya Part Two" in the future.  http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/improbability-of-conflict-with-iran-1.971765