02 August 2011

The Drawdown

At the end of Vietnam the brass was told "Do More With Less" and they tried their best.  It all ended up with massive air strikes dropping thousands of dumb bombs at a time with no real plan to help the South Vietnamese government provide stability.

Today the timeline for "withdrawal by 2014" was made quite apparent.  Battlespace owners are getting "more battlespace" and mentors are getting more Afghan units to mentor.  Everybody is getting more of all the work to do.  Plans for getting the Afghan National Security Forces to take over security have been prioritized and made abundantly clear. 

This is like my last tour in Iraq all over again.  My Battalion took the largest chunk of the Brigade battle space, and by the end of it had taken over the battle space for two other battalions.  Well, with 10,000 soldiers leaving Afghanistan by the end of the year means everyone has to take a bigger bite out of the shit sandwich.  23,000 by the end of next year.  This is all public knowledge, nothing secret about our well published withdrawl timeline...

I have my doubts about the ability of Afghanistan to ever emerge as a stable nation state given the culture of corruption, infighting, tribalism, and constant warfare endemic to this place.  The good thing about this generation is that when I go home I won't be spit on like my Vietnam era brothers. 

I wonder if those same Vietnam vets felt the same way about the Paris "peace agreements" that I do about the "talks with the Taliban."  But the sad truth is that there are some folks who truly believe that you can take a Communist or Terrorist at their word.  I can't predict the future, so I do not know how long Afghanistan will stand after US withdrawl.  But if history is any judge, about 2 years after we stop giving them air support.

16 comments:

Some Guy said...

Yep, 2 years, and depending upon the character of the people in the region and the enemy forces, 0-2 years before they really show their real faces. See Vietnam for the former and Laos for the latter.

Brock Townsend said...

Betrayed. The saddest day of my life.

THE SUICIDES ON APRIL 30, 1975
http://www.namsouth.com/viewtopic.php?t=21

Rev. Paul said...

Yep, what they said. We knew the Paris peace accord was a cop-out, but Congress had been running "the show" for some time already, at that point, and - just as today - facts, evidence and history are ignored in favor of what "feels" right.

Graybeard said...

I sometimes wonder if we're the most stupid nation in the history of the world. To publish when we're going in and when we're leaving - has anyone in history ever done that?

If those taliban had any sense, they'd just sit back and lay low. We'd leave sooner (it's pacified and all) and then they can just take the place over.

MauserMedic said...

Agreed. It's every man for himself there, and what can be gotten right now, damn the consequences that might come later.

Anonymous said...

AM, If the Soviet Afghan war is an indicator it is dollars not bombs that are the issue. I would start the downward spiral clock when the aid drops significantly.
-TOR

LFMayor said...

piss on that place. It's a crying shame that so many decent people gave all just so they could be sold out by the politicians. We will all remember when the reckoning comes.

Come home sir... we have a lot of "cleanup" to do here and can use all your talents.

Anonymous said...

Welcome to "the club" AM; I'm so very sorry that your generation and you have to join us. Liberals and their social engineering, always on the backs of the military. Stay safe, thank you for your service to our country, Alemaster

MrG's said...

I believe that it s a new generation of liberals( with their mentors) that want America to be humiliated for a new generation. And if history is followed, it will be 10 years before the "Afgan syndrome" is overcome. AM is correct, the new generation of soldiers will not be spat upon by most of the American public. I was around during the Vietnam era and saw my dad being spat upon when he returned from Vietnam.

Anonymous said...

soldiers are not spat upon as they were then, but after 10 years of widespread war, and the destruction of the economy-nobody really even cares about the troops anymore. i do not thank troops for their service, not now. you chose to do it, i chose to get out before it got worse. i respect you for goign through with it, but as you've said in your own words am-what has anybody gained out of this? besides the men in suits having new places to stash their money? you're better off just doing what you've been doing, because there's nothing for you to come home to. soldiers have a higher unemployment rate than 99% of the unemp in the nation. you'll just grab a seat, and wait in line like the rest of us. but thanks for giving me such insight to the afghan life. you're page is copied and pasted and creditted often on our blog site.

Anonymous said...

I remember senior leaders in Iraq telling soldiers how one day in 2012 vacationing American civilians would peacefully sip coffee and Arab tea at the markets on Haifa Street...

...we knew it was bullshit then, we knew it even as we won the 2007surge, and we still know it now...

...but, as always, there is no more giving or hopeful human on earth than the American Soldier...

...knowing that and serving amongst them was worth more than all the gold in Cathay.

Ronin 64

Ted Amadeus said...

God speed you home, AM: I am concerned this massive indebtedness, default and ensuing "civil unrest", like the handing over of Shitstainistan to the Taliban, is engineered by our dear, "enLIEtened" Terrorist In Chief to sell US out, as well as you. There's a lot of housecleaning to be done when we used to hunt Communists, but now elect them.

Anonymous said...

With no vision for victory we assure defeat.

Old Top said...

My Grandaddy was a Cavalry SGTMAJ in his day.

He always told me, "Remember, nothing is too good for the troops
. . . and nothing is exactly what you're gonna get."

kdzu said...

Attending my Air Cav units 40 year reunion this October.
It's sad indeed to know that in 40 years you will look back in as much disgust as we will.
Come on home safe. Remember your skill set. We may need an update course, but a lot of us will be beside you, hopefully in getting rid of the bastards currently running the show.
The more time passes the more I'm convinced that "voting them out" is a hopeless strategy.

Iskruel (Former AU Mil.) said...

I said it to a friend when I returned from the ghan.... one day, we'll have talks with the Taliban, theyre going to give up their rebellion, they'll be integrated into the Afghan government, we're gonna go home, and they'll run it however they feel like.
But this time they won't have Bin Laden.