Unrest/Insurgency/Stability, thoughts on Egypt

"Gung Ho" means "work together".  Effective organizations work together.

People riot for what they don't have.  If they have a monarchy they riot for democracy/communism/socialism.  If they have a secular govt they riot for sharia law.  The common thread is that people believe that they will personally gain something from change.

I've been thinking about the situation in Egypt.  When enough people get ticked off at the same time you have "civil unrest".  This is not the same thing as an insurgency.  But like anything else you can have both at the same time.  A good insurgent will use chaos to bring legitimacy to the cause by distributing food, medicine, or providing security since the cops can't handle it all.  If you are going to set yourself up as a replacement to government, you have to be able to deliver some of the services that governments deliver.

The scariest thing about the situation in Egypt is that the Muslim Brotherhood, an insurgent terror organization with a lineage of successful operations even Al Quaeda envies has been "invigorated" by several members escaping from prison during the "civil unrest".  The Muslim Brotherhood knows how to "work together" to conduct acts of terror and provide social stability.  It is the same recipe that Hezbollah and the Taliban used.

Of course all the rioting mobs we have here in the states?  Rioting FOR statism, against freedom (WTO riots in Seattle come to mind).  In the UK students riot for cheap tuition.  In France Muslims riot almost on schedule every summer.  It isn't freedom loving conservatives knocking over lamp posts and tipping cop cars.  We have people who are concerned about preparedness and security (if you have a zombie plan, you are one).  These folks are ready for when a disaster strikes by may not be part of any sort of insurgent/militia/cell structure.  However they can even help their neighbors most of the time and they won't be prey to looters or rioters. 

So "Gung Ho".  Work together, don't be part of a rioting mob, be part of the planned solution.  As the Iranian revolutionaries knew, you can USE the rioting mob to do all sorts of things you couldn't normally do by providing leadership and direction.

I do not want to see an Iranian style revolution here in the US.  Ever.  If the rioting mob came to your neighborhood, which of your neighbors would stand firm?  Which would crumble.  Which would set up an L shaped ambush and claim self defense in the aftermath?  In the FedGov we have a saying, "A disaster is the worst place to meet for the first time."  Which is why states that are good at responding to disasters like North Carolina conduct yearly readiness exercises to stress the lines of communication between agencies.  On a different way of thinking about things, why is it that HAM radio operators stay connected?  The same reason that anyone who can get an IP address can stay connected through IRC, even over a dialup connection.  Some technologies are more "robust" than others.

Networking now saves time and effort later.  There is a local group of 4x4 owners near Olympia, WA, who volunteer just to drive hospital employees to work when it snows.  That is a private group keeping "essential public services" open.  So, use the mob to destroy the .gov, or calm the mob to restore the .gov.  The more groups in the mix the more chaotic events become.  Sun Tzu knew that winning a battle without fighting is the peak of skill.

Of course if you can't stop the mob from forming, you can limit the damage by being prepared.  Because as many Egyptians have found out (and at least half of all Americans know) the .gov really can't protect you.