When planning for a mission someone somewhere works out the math on expected casualties. Usually this is the S1 and S4 trying to figure out how many replacements they will need and how much medical support the unit will need during different phases of the operation. These numbers come out of the calculator either as a percentage of the unit, or as an estimated digit.
We can look at the numbers for American and VC dead in Vietnam to get a good feel for historical "counterinsurgency" ops. Round the VC death to 1 million and American to 58,000 and we see that the technological advantage of air power and artillery really helps. In Afghanistan the Soviets were even more successful than the Americans in Vietnam, roughly 1 million Afghans dead to under 14,000 Soviet soldiers.
So what does this tell us? A foreign power with a technical advantage will really whoop up on an insurgent.
When we look at a different type of war, such as the American Civil War, where there was not a technical advantage by either side, we see massive casualties.
The insurgencies that work are the ones that nullify the government advantages. The will of the people is what wins an insurgency, not military might (the .gov always has more military might). Fighting the government with bullets is not as effective as winning the hearts and minds of the populace. When the people see the insurgent as a better alternative than the .gov even if the .gov bends to appease the people the insurgent will have achieved success.
Case in point Egypt and Libya. Not a lot of bullets flew in Egypt, the insurgents had the support of the people. In Libya the insurgents do not have enough support to keep the .gov from cracking down with bullets. So, to minimize casualties insurgents must fight for the hearts and minds first and foremost.
About Me
- AM
- Raised by conservative Christian parents, enlisted in the Army at 18, used the GI Bill to finish college, and I'm back in the Army. Along the way I've encountered a huge cast of characters, some I got into trouble with, some that passed on skills that have helped me on my life journey.
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6 comments:
Good post and it is said the NVA lost two million.
As far as the will of the people is concerned, Tom Barry lays it out well in Guerrilla Days In Ireland.
So what is the strategy when the people support the corrupt government? How does this apply when the people you are trying to win the hearts and minds of value .gov handouts over the ability to know true freedom?
Curious.
AP
Brock, whenever I find an estimate of casualties I go with the lower estimate. Either way, the massive death toll on the communists was due to air and arty superiority.
AP, if people are on the dole they must be convinced that the dole is the bonds of slavery. Effective propaganda is the only way to do this.
For example, in the Black ghettos of Government Housing it would take a master of propaganda to paint the dole as the devils handout that forces the black people deeper into financial and spiritual poverty.
In Alaska it might be a bit different. Alaska could get along just fine without the Federal dollars, but it would take a master of propaganda to get people to believe it is better to stand on their own than beg on their knees.
Sometimes you have to win their minds before their heart will follow.
A tall order for the propaganda corps, for sure.
Looks like there's a lot of work to be done.
Thanks for the comments and the post.
AP
The good thing is that there are allies of freedom out there spreading the word. Allen West, Herman Cain, Bill Cosby, Colin Powell have all spoken about the disastrous cycle of dependence on welfare for the Black community. Why else would the liberals attack these individuals so viciously except that they don't want Blacks off of the .gov plantation?
I think it would actually be an easier sell to Alaskans to try to keep the Feds out of State business.
As AP states, it is difficult when so many people are comfortable in their chains as long as they continue to get their McDonald's, Oprah, and iPod. And the convenience of flying is worth allowing their loved ones to be irradiated and groped.
As you indicate, states rebelling against Federal control are one possible lever. Another is the realization that educating the majority of the entitled in the desirability of liberty isn't necessary. But it will take a significant minority to overcome the inertia of that majority.
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