Thoughts on cloud computing

Back in the day, mainframe computers were the business and technical solution for digitizing business.  The cost of mainframes moved a lot of businesses to the Client/Server model. The bulk of computing is done on the client PC, and the server does backup, network sharing

Microsoft, Apple, and Google have been trying to do "web apps" and "cloud computing" solutions for Apple IOS and Google Chrome OS (Apple allowed native Apps when it became clear that web apps were not ready for the mass market).  This is the same model as the old "dumb terminal/Mainframe" model that is really now only a specialized solution for some businesses.

So now native apps reign supreme, and yet the big names in software solutions are still looking to cloud computing for the "next gen" in data processing.

This will fail for one simple reason.  Moore's law.  The cost of creating "smart" clients that can process their own data continues to decline while the throughput technology (bandwidth) has remained relatively static.  The first computer I built from the ground up was an 800 mhz Athlon box in 1999, now smartphones are coming out with 1 ghz processors and the speed will only increase.

Bandwidth is really going to be the determining issue in whether cloud computing catches on in the mainstream.  I know that you can now do 300 mbps wireless, cool.  But gigabit ethernet has been around for over a decade.  And even the 4g network isn't enough of a pipeline to support that 45 megabyte powerpoint presentation that you need to modify.

So the processing power of mobile devices will continue to increase (Moore's Law) faster than the bandwidth available to those mobile devices.  When you look at the problem in this manner, cloud computing is not a solution, only an attempt by "big tech" to lock in a customer base to their "cloud solution".

But if you allow me to hedge my bets, I suspect that "home cloud computing" will become more and more mainstream for both average consumers and business consumers as well.  Why would a bank use Google or Microsoft cloud when they can set up their own cloud where they control the security?  Remember, the cloud won't be used for processing power (Moore's Law) but it may replace the "client/server" relationship.

How cool would that be?  Instead of setting up a home network, you set up a home cloud?